Brexit: BGSE Community Analysis

We want to know what the BGSE community is thinking and reading about the Brexit.

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We invite all Barcelona GSE students and alumni to share their early reflections on the potential economic consequences of the UK’s recent vote to leave the EU. Did you focus on a related topic in your master project? Are you working at a think tank, central bank, or consulting firm where your projects will be impacted by this decision? Have you seen any articles or links that you found useful for understanding what lies ahead?

Here are a couple of pieces we’ve found to get the discussion going:

After Brexit: What next for the EMU, EU and UK?
(ADEMU webinar)

The BGSE participates in A Dynamic Economic and Monetary Union (ADEMU), a project of the EU Horizon 2020 Program. Last week, ADEMU researchers held a webinar to discuss the Brexit.

Background:

Europe has grown out of its crises when reason and solidarity have prevailed, but it has also been devastated by its crises when fear and nationalism have taken the lead. Brexit, in the aftermath of the euro crisis, brings this dichotomy back to the foreground. Since 2010 there have been important advances in the development of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and flexible forms of participation have allowed other EU countries, reluctant to join the euro, to share the basic principles that define the EU and have a common presence in the interdependent global world.

According to the panelists, Brexit raises 3 crucial questions:

  1. Should the EMU be accelerated to become a centre of gravity within the EU, or slowed down to avoid a centrifugal diaspora? If accelerated, how?
  2. Should an ‘exit’ country be allowed free entry to the single market and other EU public goods without accepting freedom of movement?
  3. Should the EU remain as it is, or increase its capacity to offer common public services (Banking Union, border security, research funding, environment, etc.), or limit its scope of activity to the EU single and integrated market?

Webinar Panel:
– Joaquín Almunia (Former Vice-President of the European Commission, honorary president of the Barcelona GSE)
– Ramon Marimon (European University Institute and UPF – Barcelona GSE; ADEMU)
– Gorgio Monti (European University Institute; ADEMU)
– Morten Ravn (University College London; ADEMU)

Moderator:
Annika Zorn (European University Institute; Florence School of Banking & Finance)


From Brexit to the Future
(Joseph Stiglitz)

Nobel Laureate and Barcelona GSE Scientific Council member Joseph Stiglitz shares some reflections in the wake of the Brexit decision


What are you thoughts on Brexit?

We want to know what the BGSE community is thinking and reading about the Brexit. Please share your ideas, favorite sources for analysis, or observations from economists you respect in the comments below.

Mind the (Gender) Gap

Post by Ana María Costa-Ramón ’14, Dimitria Gavalyugova ’14 and Ana Rodríguez-González ’14, alumni from the master’s in Economics at the Barcelona GSE

The gender gap is not unique. Or, at least, it is far from being a unidimensional concept. Rather, a vast literature demonstrates that it is multifaceted: we find gender gaps in education, the labor market, intrahousehold organization and politics, to say a few (Casarico and Profeta, 2015), and all of these are likely to be profoundly linked to one another. As Claudia Goldin points out, “these economic gender gaps have been a major issue in the women’s movement and a major issue for economists”. Here we mainly focus on just one of these dimensions – though complex enough: the gender pay gap.

Although the gender-gap in earnings has decreased over time, it still remains firmly in place. For the US, in 2014, the gender-wage gap was 83%, meaning that women’s median earnings ($719) were 83% of those of male full-time wage and salary workers ($871). The picture for Europe is similar: in 2013 for the EU-28, the gender-pay gap defined in gross hourly earnings was 16.3%, meaning that women’s average earnings are 83.7% of male gross earnings.

Figure 1. Evolution of the gender pay gap in the US

Figure 1

Figure 2. The gender pay gap across European countries

Figure 2

In the late 90’s, human capital accumulation differences and sex-based discrimination were the main factors being discussed as potential causes of the gender gap in earnings. Although these explanations remain of first order relevance, in the last decade there has been an increasing interest in the analysis of gender-differences in psychological traits, social norms and preferences that has enriched this debate (Bertrand, 2011). In fact, together with direct discrimination and undervaluing of women’s work, labor market segregation and its subtle determinants have emerged as some of the most researched causes of the gender gap. In what follows, we will summarize some of the findings in this regard.

We could divide the recent literature that tries to explain labor market segregation into two main categories: those papers aimed at understanding the early determinants of the differential career choice by men and women (pre labor market entry) and those focusing on the later determinants – post labor market entry – which explain segregation from the labor market dynamics.

An important pre-labor market entry determinant of the gender-pay gap is the difference in education and career choices. Although many countries have taken significant steps towards achieving gender equality in education in recent decades, and girls outperform boys in most subjects, girls are still less likely than boys to be top performers in maths and to choose STEM [Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics] fields of study and, even when they do, they are less likely to take up careers in those fields (OECD, 2012). Among the main reasons suggested to explain this differential career choice are gender differences in some key psychological traits that are closely related; namely, competitiveness, risk aversion and overconfidence.

There is a large literature documenting gender differences in competitiveness. For example, Niederle and Vesterlund (2007) find in a lab experiment that women enter less than men into a competitive environment. Moreover, they document that the gender gap in competitiveness is not driven by performance and that, instead, gender differences in overconfidence and in taste for competition are more plausible explanations. In a later paper, these authors argue that the fact that women also perform worse than men under competition can explain part of the larger gap in mathematics performance at high percentiles of the distribution (Niederle and Vesterlund, 2010); that is, because the pressures associated with competition and risk-taking have a differential impact on boys and girls, the gender gap in math scores may not reflect only differences in skills, but also differences in responding to competitive environments. This is relevant, since math scores have been found to be a good predictor of future income and are associated with the track choice in tertiary education (Paglin and Rufolo, 1990). In fact, in a recent paper Buser et al (2014) link a experimental measure of competitiveness with the later choice of academic track and find that the gender difference in competitiveness can account for about 20% of the gender differences in track choice.

In the same line, it has also been well established that women are more risk averse than men (e.g. Booth et al., 2014; Charness and Gneezy, 2011). Risk aversion differences, as in the case of entry into competition, have also been hypothesized to have an effect on career choice and labor market segregation, as high-paying jobs may involve more risk-taking attitudes (Booth, 2009).

Similarly, several authors have also concluded that men are significantly more overconfident than women (e.g. Niederle and Vesterlund, 2007; Bengtsson et al, 2005). In fact, there is even some evidence that women are actually underconfident (Dahlbom et al, 2010; Jakobsson, 2012). These gender differences in overconfidence can also be an important factor contributing to the segregation of the labor market as they have been found to be associated with the willingness to start a new business (Koellinger et al, 2008), with risk-taking behavior in a financial context (Barber et al, 2001) or with competitiveness (Niederle et al, 2007), among others. In fact, Dahlbom et al (2010) argue that gender differences in confidence may perpetuate the segregated labor markets by means of self-selection.

Some authors have tried to explain what drives these gender differences in personality traits. This is an important question, because if these gender differences have, at least in part, a social origin and are influenced by stereotypes, then there is scope for policy intervention. In this line, Gneezy et al (2009) show that the finding that men are more competitive than women is not invariant to the social norms. They compare gender differences in self-selection into a competitive environment in a patriarchal society (Tanzania’s Maasai) versus in a matrilineal society (Northern India’s Khasi). While in the patriarchal society women self-select themselves into competition significantly less than their male counterparts, in the matrilineal society the proportions are reversed, and women actually appear more competitive than men. Booth and Nolen (2012; a, b) also point at socialization processes as potential drivers of the risk attitudes and willingness to compete of women. They study 15-year-old girls and find that their tendency to select themselves into competition and their risk aversion level is different for girls in single-sex schools than for girls in mixed-gender schools, with the former being more similar to the average boy in these aspects. D’Acunto (2015) conducts a lab experiment to measure the impact of gender identity on risk-taking behavior. He finds that making gender identity more salient increases risk taking for men. Finally, Iriberri and Rey-Biel (2011) find that making task stereotypes salient makes women underperform in a competitive setting.

The literature discussed above reveals that early gender differences in behavior, which have, at least in part, a social origin, can explain some of the difference in career choices made by males and females. However, one question remains: what sustains the gender pay gap within occupations? A number of works exist that shed light on certain institutional or job-related characteristics that can be held accountable.

Early literature focused on employers’ discriminatory promotion standards, founded on the higher probability of leaving for females (Lazear and Rosen,1990). Another phenomenon that has been of interest for earlier work is what has been dubbed as the “child-earning penalty” (e.g. Waldfogel,1998).

The latter mechanism has motivated a significant number of studies to explore the role of government-mandated parental leave as a potential remedy (Klerman and Leibowitz, 1997; Ruhm, 1998; Lalive and Zweimuller, 2009). While maternity leave policies have been found to yield mixed effects on females’ labor market attachment and earnings (Blau and Kahn, 2013), the effect of the introduction of paternity leave still remains to be explored in depth. As will become clear from the next paragraph, paternity leave policies, among others, may actually serve as a more effective instrument for bridging the gap between male and female earnings.

Present-day literature on occupational determinants of the pay gap is shifting its focus towards time-intensity and remuneration structures that affect females disproportionately. In particular, in her 2014 presidential address to the American Economic Association, Claudia Goldin put forth the hypothesis that it is convex (as opposed to linear) returns to inflexibility and long hours within high-paid (and predominantly competitive) occupations that lead to a gender divergence in earnings. This theory can explain the finding that the wage gap between males and females with similar backgrounds is much lower for women without children, who have a weaker preference for a flexible schedule. It also provides support for the thesis that lowering the cost of long-hours for females may help them benefit from these convex returns.

Some recent empirical studies have already emerged to back this theory. Wasserman (2015) provides some evidence of a tradeoff between family formation and high-paid more time-intensive specialties for female medical residents, while Cortés and Pan (2014) show that expanding women’s capacity to work longer hours can contribute to closing the gender pay gap.

Conclusion:

Although it is true that most Western societies have turned gender equality into a priority, differences in labor market outcomes for males and females persist, in part due to innate characteristics, prejudice and stereotypes and in part to labor market requirements. Closing what Goldin (2014) refers to as “the last chapter of gender convergence” thus involves addressing both the behavioral and the institutional channels behind the gender gap. As the OECD (2012) points out, aspirations are formed at a young age and thus, if we want to see gender-based wage disparities vanish, we should focus our attention on changing gender stereotypes and attitudes as early as possible. Further, mitigating the work-family trade-off experienced by women at a later stage in life should be an integral part of any effort to eliminate inequality within occupations. Working towards altering cultural norms and stereotypes, as well as creating incentives for adjusting labor conditions, may appear costly at first, but it is surely a profitable investment in gender-equality in the long term. Because closing the gender-pay gap is not a zero-sum game where one group of individuals gains at the expense of others. Rather, it is a step towards a more equitable society, which, without a doubt, would benefit us all.

Bibliography:

Barber, B. M. and Odean, T. (2001). “Boys Will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116, 261–292.

Bengtsson, C., Persson, M., Willenhag, P. (2005) “Gender and overconfidence.” Economics Letters, Vol. 86, 199 – 203. Continue reading “Mind the (Gender) Gap”

EU Banking Union: What it is and What it is Not

Arturo Pallardó ’15 (Master in Economics) and Christopher Gandrud (Lecturer, City University London) have put together a summary of the European multilevel bank regulatory structure.

banking union

The health of the European banking system has come back into the media spotlight. The recent fall in bank shares; the creation of the Italian “bad bank”; and Britain’s demands to shield its banks from rules governing the euro region; suggest that the debate on the design and functioning of the European banking regulatory architecture will be on the table in the following months.

Given the complex and evolving nature of European banking regulation, there is much confusion about what has already been established and what plans are being discussed. We hope to clarify the current and proposed state of the European bank regulatory architecture. We differentiate which rules and institutions form the so-called “banking union” and which rules are part of the more general EU single market for financial services.

You can read the full summary on bankingunion.eu, a website run by Arturo that curates content and fosters debate on the European banking union’s evolution.

Follow the authors on Twitter @bankingunion_eu and @chrisgandrud

 

 

How the concept of sunk costs changed my life – Laura Hopkins ’14

Bike trip

In October 2015 I went on a cycle-touring holiday with my bici-friki boyfriend. It was loads of fun. And loads of hard work. Every day was a new challenge:

  • the fancy bike computer that was showing us the route was set on training mode on the first day – it took us 112km to do a 50km stretch on the back roads up the mountains;
  • I suffered not one, not two, but three unfortunate punctures on the road;
  • and then there was that storm we tried to ride through.

(I still highly recommend bike touring, and count the holiday as a highlight of the year. And I had an otherwise great year, too.)

We were trying to reach Trieste in Italy to visit our friend Rafael. We had two weeks before we were due to show up for a flight home from nearby Venice. (We were optimistic.) One week in – when it was clear we wouldn’t be able to cycle there in time unless our panniers turned into combustion engines overnight – we decided to bite the bullet and book a few trains that would get us there in time to hang out with Rafael for a few days and fly home.

Remember that storm I told you about? Well, it scuppered all our plans. There we were ready to take our trains in the direction of Italy, and the line was completely down due to storm damage.

There were six days left of our holiday before we needed to be back at work. We waited a day, figuring we could check out the town we found ourselves in (Avignon – beautiful) – it would take 1.5 days to get from Avignon to Trieste by train, so after waiting one day in Avignon and then travelling, we’d still have 3.5 days before needing to get our flight. That was cool with us.

sights

However, the trains weren’t running the next day either. Should we wait another day? Now we’re only looking at 2.5 days in Trieste. Of course we waited. Rafael is an awesome guy and a great friend.

But the following day brought us no luck. If we waited another day, we’d only have 1.5 day between arriving in Trieste and flying back from Venice. Yes, it’s close, but it’s still half a day of travelling to the airport etc.

We were faced with the decision to either:

  1. wait for another day and only perhaps be able to get on the train, and then spend half of our remaining three days of holiday travelling, only to spend one night with Rafael and then turn around and fly home.

OR

  1. Cycle back the way we had come, away from the bad weather, and enjoy four further days on the road.

How much had we paid on the tickets?

  • Two TGV tickets from Avignon to Nice +
  • Two fast rail tickets from Nice to Milan +
  • Two train tickers from Milan to Trieste +
  • Two flights from Venice to Barcelona, including luggage and bike fees =

Somewhere back there I estimated this to be in the region of €600 total.

We decided to turn our bikes around and cycle back to Barcelona. We could make it to the border in four days and then hop on a train.

That was one expensive decision, right?

No. The concept of sunk costs tells us why not.

This somewhat counter-intuitive lesson reminds us that we can’t change the past – perhaps not such a revolutionary concept when you put it that way. Sunk costs tells us to make decisions about the future, taking into account only prospective costs, and not those already incurred (unless you have a time machine, in which case don’t tell me because I will be mad you didn’t lend it to me when I clearly needed it to tell myself not to buy those tickets.)

We would have paid the money had we been sat on the trains or not. In this moment, we were facing the decision as per points 1 and 2 above, but with no reference at all to the expenditure on the tickets. That was history. Yesterday’s news. Somebody else’s money.

There were no regrets.

I knew we hadn’t lost €600.

Econ told me so.


Laura Hopkins graduated from the Barcelona GSE Master in Economics of Public Policy in 2014. She divides her time between creating, monitoring, and evaluation frameworks for international development programs, and developing her business, Healthy Start Holidays.

Women-headed households: The need for good data – Yajna Sanguhan ’14

International Trade, Finance, and Development alum Yajna Sanguhan ’14 is a research assistant at the Centre for Poverty Analysis (CEPA), a think tank in Sri Lanka. An article she wrote on women-headed households (WHHs) has just been published in that country’s DailyFT newspaper.

Excerpt from the article:

“While we continue to use the concept of “head of the household”, it is imperative that as a first step to deconstructing WHHs and informing policy makers, new methods are employed to collect data and a rigorous, holistic approach is taken to capture the diverse and nuanced experiences amongst Women-Headed Households in Sri Lanka…

Understanding the gendered dimensions of poverty not only requires superior data but a better use of the currently available data.

Read the full article on DailyFT

The article is part of an ongoing series of articles by the Centre for Poverty Analysis (CEPA) about WHHs that tries to present a more nuanced understanding of the topic. There are many WHHs across Sri Lanka, but there has been a rise due to the 26-year civil war, which ended in 2009.

ysanguhan
Yajna has been working at CEPA for a year and developed this article as a result of her research into gender and poverty in the context of post-war Sri Lanka.

Follow Yajna on Twitter @y_sangu or connect on LinkedIn

New banking union website by Arturo Pallardó ’15

Economics alum Arturo Pallardó ’15 has created a new website to follow the evolution of the European banking union.

Arturo Pallardó (Master in Economics ’15) is the creator of the @bankingunion_eu Twitter account and has just launched a new website to follow the evolution of the European banking union. Here he tells Barcelona GSE Voice readers about the project:
interview-bankingunion

As expressed by the European Central Bank, the construction of a banking union emerged from the financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis: “It became clear that, especially in a monetary union such as the euro area, problems caused by close links between public sector finances and the banking sector can easily spill over national borders and cause financial distress in other EU countries”.

However, this European project is still under construction. The ultimate goal of this www.bankingunion.eu website is to gather and structure banking union-related documents, from legislative acts to research papers, while fostering the debate on those issues that are unfinished.

Meanwhile, in the current beta version of the web the reader will find different interviews with academics, researchers and professionals discussing some of these banking union topics.

alumni

Visit www.bankingunion.eu

Follow @bankingunion_eu on Twitter

Connect with Arturo on LinkedIn

Mapping economic research: where to Nobel Laureates publish their work?

The main idea is to show a graphical representation about the scientific publication patterns that have adopted the winners of the Economic Sciences Prize given by the Nobel Foundation.

map

Work by José Luis Massón-Guerra (MESI’08, DEMO-PhD)

The main idea is to show a graphical representation about the scientific publication patterns that have adopted the winners of the Economic Sciences Prize given by the Nobel Foundation (officially, this recognition is known as the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel; colloquially, it is known as the Nobel laureate in economics).

Read more about this project

Riding the barrel: How commodity exporters can maneuver through price rapids

Master project by Martin Aragoneses, Mario Giarda, and Nikolas Schöll. Barcelona GSE Master’s in Economics

Editor’s note: This post is part of a series showcasing Barcelona GSE master projects by students in the Class of 2015. The project is a required component of every master program.


Authors: 
Martin Aragoneses, Mario Giarda, and Nikolas Schöll

Master’s Program:
Economics

Paper Abstract:

We develop a multi-sector small open economy DSGE model with government and exogenous sources of income, in particular where the country is a commodity producer such that income from commodity exports provides a large proportion of government revenue, making international uncertainty about the future commodity price matter. The objectives of this paper are to study the differences between level shocks and uncertainty shocks to commodity prices in terms of how they affect the economy, and to analyze the convenience of different fiscal rules when we allow the income processes to have moving uncertainty.

In an application, we estimate the parameters of a stochastic volatility model for Angola and Chile and we feed them to the model to see different economic responses to uncertainty shocks. Then, we investigate whether the fiscal rule should depend on the type of income process in general. In our evaluation, we focus on the short term implications of the rule in reducing volatility, wondering if it is better to spend the resources in the present than have an insurance against the cycles? Finally, we discuss some policy implications regarding the implementation of those rules. Can the rule be tractable by the agents on the model? Are the best rules sufficiently simple to be followed by the public and finally credible as an anchor of the expectation

Presentation Slides:

[slideshare id=51096497&doc=commodity-exports-price-rapids-150730112303-lva1-app6892]

Monetary Policy Uncertainty: does it justify requiring the Fed to follow a Taylor rule?

Editor’s note: This post is part of a series showcasing Barcelona GSE master projects by students in the Class of 2015. The project is a required component of every master program.


Authors:
Jacques Alcabes, Ángelo Gutiérrez, Patrick Mayer, and Hugo Kaminski

Master’s Program:
Economics

Paper Abstract:

In 2014 the “Federal Reserve Accountability and Transparency Act” (FRATA) was introduced in the U.S. congress requiring the Fed to adopt a rules-based policy. Supporters of this act argue that uncertainty about economic policy is one of the main explanations for the slow economic recovery witnessed by the U.S. since the 2008 financial crisis. In this article we investigate the effects of monetary policy as a specific source of policy uncertainty and propose some novel measures to estimate the effect and magnitude of monetary policy uncertainty on economic activity. We find that, while the effects of monetary policy uncertainty are statistically significant, it is not a large contributor to economic fluctuations.

This project got a shout out from John Taylor himself on Twitter!

Presentation Slides:

[slideshare id=50808034&doc=monetary-policy-uncertainty-150722150209-lva1-app6891]