Alumni Voices: micro-foundations, mid-life crises, and more

Links to Barcelona GSE alumni voices around the web

Alumni Voices

Alumni Voices is a roundup of links to recent analysis, research, and commentary by Barcelona GSE graduates that we’ve spotted around the web. 

Alumni Voices – April 2015

Want us to add your work to the next roundup? Send us the link!

Data visualization: London property prices

Barcelona GSE Data Science student Stefano Costantini ’15 shares a data viz exercise that explores London property prices from 1995-2013.

StefanoData Science student Stefano Costantini ’15 has posted this data viz project exploring London property prices on his website. Have a look and follow Stefano on Twitter @stefanoc.


 

London property prices: Visualising the evolution of the residential market (1995 to 2013)

The London residential property market has always been strong. However, it is only in the last twenty years or so that property prices have increased to such levels that previously “cheap” areas have now turned into prime locations. The gentrification process, together to an increase in population, have pushed up the prices even in peripheral areas. The purpose of this exercise is to visualise these changes, covering the period 1995-2013.

graphic
Evolution of local average prices by quarter for the whole period 1995-2013

See more graphics, read about the methodology and tools used in the project, and download the code and the data from Stefano’s website.

How should economics be taught? A conversation with Vicenç Navarro

Hugo Ferradans

By Hugo Ferradans, current student in the Barcelona GSE Master in Economics of Public Policy. Follow him on Twitter @Hferradans.


“In my over 50 years of academic life, the 1% has never had as much influence in shaping the knowledge of economics as it does now.”

UPF Professor Vicenç Navarro, author of Podemos’ electoral program, talks about the way economics is taught today and some of the policies put forward by Podemos.

Vicenç Navarro is currently a professor and the director of the Public Policy program both in Pompeu Fabra and John Hopkins University. Being one of the most internationally cited researchers in the field of social sciences, Vicenç Navarro is an economist, political theorist and sociologist who has been widely recognized for challenging neoliberal approaches to the study of economics. Together with professor Juan Torres, he is the author of the controversial electoral program put forward by Podemos, where they advocate for a strong public sector and welfare state, as well as a move away from an economy based on speculative industries like construction. Love-him or hate-him, Navarro’s strong opinions have been able to shake the current economic academia and Spain’s political scenario – and we are here to ask him about it.

Part 1: Reflections on the way Economics is taught today

Hugo Ferradáns (HF) – There is little doubt that neoclassical economics has contributed to a very large extent to the study of economics and social sciences. Nevertheless, it seems that this neoclassical school of thought has monopolized the economic syllabus in top universities around the United States and Europe, leaving alternative economic perspectives ignored.

You suggest in a number of articles that many of the economic policies that are being implemented currently in Europe come from specific power relations within the Eurozone (European Central Bank and the IMF against anti-austerity movements in Greece, Spain, etc.). In relation to the study of economics, how does the lack of teaching about institutions and politics in the economic curriculum, as well as the lack of debate against the foundations of neoclassical theories, are limiting our understanding of today’s economic and political scene?

Vicenç Navarro (VN) – One of the major problems we encounter in the production of economic knowledge is its excessive disciplinary approach. Actually, the academic institutions are usually divided by departments based on disciplines, one of them being economics. The reality that surrounds us, however, cannot be understood following the disciplinary approach. The understanding of our realities, including the economic ones, calls for a multidisciplinary analysis, with the understandings of the historical, political and social forces that shape and determine that reality. In order to understand the current Great Recession, for example, we have to understand how power—class power, race power, gender power, national power—is produced and reproduced through political institutions, as well as social and cultural ones. In other words, we have to comprehend how power relations shape the governance of our societies, including their economies.

Modern economics is used as a way of confusing and/or ignoring the political realities that shape the economy.

The current economics, for the most part, do not do that. They specialize in branches of the tree without understanding, or even less, questioning, the nature of the forest. Moreover, they have given great emphasis to the methods, depoliticizing the realities of the economic phenomenon. Today, modern economics is used as a way of confusing and/or ignoring the political realities that shape the economy. Currently, most of the major economic problems we face are basically political.
You cannot understand, for example, the current crisis in Europe without understanding the decline of labor income, and, thus, of domestic demand; this is the result of the changing power relations—primarily class power relations—that have occurred in the last thirty years. You can also not explain the crisis without understanding the enormous influence of financial capital on the European Central Bank. To try to explain reality by referring to the working of the financial markets as a point of departure is profoundly wrong and naïve. Financial markets have very little to do with markets. It was enough for Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank, to speak a sentence, to reduce the interest rates dramatically.

The absence of the study of the political and social context, determined historically, makes current economics an apologetic message for current power relations, mystifying, hiding, and/or confusing the understanding of the economic phenomena. It is not surprising, therefore, that the critical traditions within economies are completely ignored or marginalized. It is predictable that current economists did not perceive the arrival of the current recession, which is a Great Depression for millions of Europeans. Only analysts from critical traditions were able to predict it. And we did it.

HF – Many people would ask why are historical and political contexts so ignored in the economics syllabus if they are so important to understand economics. Does this rejection come from a clash of interests between economic and political powers and Universities, or was it a slow transition towards a neoclassical orthodoxy led by the academia?

VN – The current emphasis on methods and its analysis of the economic reality without looking at the political context that determines it is a consequence of changes in the power relations in our societies. The apologetic function of current economies of the current power relations explains its lack of relevance. What we have been seeing since the 80s has been the enormous growth of income derived from capital, and the decline of income from labor. This has resulted in the drastic growth of inequalities.

The influence of financial and economic institutions in the production of knowledge is enormous.

But those who derive their income from capital have enormous influence on value-generating systems, including the media and universities. This is extremely clear in the US but is happening also in the European universities. Today, the influence of financial and economic institutions in the production of knowledge is enormous. They fund research, support economic journals, and shape, to a large degree, the academic culture in the area of economics. It is very similar to what happens in medicine where the pharmaceutical industry has a major influence in shaping clinical knowledge and practice.

In my over 50 years of academic life, never has the 1% (those who derive their income from capital) had as much influence in shaping the knowledge of economics. The situation in Spain is even worse than in the US, due to the lack of public funds for economic research. The major research institutions are funded by major banks or major corporations. This explains the dominance of the neoliberal ideology in most academic forums, journals, and major media.

HF – Does this influence go beyond universities? How does this affect democracy in Europe and the United States?

VN – The influence of what now is called the 1% on society affects all institutions that reproduce information and knowledge, from the major media in a country to the university, and now including the entire educational system, starting with the schools. The expansion of the teaching of economics to the school systems in an intent to expand a vision of reality that is in accordance with conventional wisdom in a country, the wisdom shaped by the 1%, and its allied classes (which includes approximately another 10% of the population).

Part 2: Public policy in Spain

HF – Moving now to policy in Spain, we would like to talk about the role of media in democracy. The importance of and the ways to achieve a plural media independent from public institutions and economic powers has been subject of intense debate over the past years due to its relevance to democratic quality. As an example, Prat and Strömberg (2011) suggest that to achieve this plural and independent media we need to encourage financially independent outlets. McChesney and Schiller (2003), however, focus on the importance of public media as a way to insulate outlets from being controlled by corporations.

In the economic program that Podemos presented, of which you are one of the authors, you suggest that there should be a “separation by law between the property of financial groups and communication outlets, thus ensuring the independence of all media companies from the government and large corporations” (page 10). Furthermore, you mention that there should be a “legislation that provides a minimum quota of independent public media outlets”, by which “no company could take more than the 15% of the total media market” (page 10).

Many people would question these policies, arguing that independence and quality in media markets are not necessarily achieved by constraining private companies and expanding public media outlets. Many examples of private media outlets that are independent of private corporations can be given, such as The Guardian, The New York Times and even La Sexta in Spain. How would an increase in the presence of public media outlets improve the independence of media from economic and political powers in Spain? Isn’t the problem of media independence about a casta that operates both at the private and public level?

VN – Today, financial capital—primarily banks and insurance companies—have the dominant voice in the major media. In Spain this is obvious. All major media are in deep debt and are in the hands of the banks. It is because of this that Professor Juan Torres and I indicated in our economic proposals for the new party Podemos that that linkage should be discontinued, because it enormously limits the necessary ideological diversity that should exist in any democracy. Today, there is no such diversity in Spain.

But that situation is not unique in Spain. I have lived for many years in the United States, teaching at the Johns Hopkins University for over fifty years, and ideological diversity is also very limited in that country. Rarely, if ever, will you see intellectuals such as Noam Chomsky in the major media. Incidentally, I have to correct you regarding The New York Times in the US and La Sexta in Spain. The largest groups of members on the Editorial Board of the NYT are related to insurance companies and banking. This explains the hostility of that daily to the specific single-payer proposal for reforming health care in the US. This proposal, put forward by the left of the Democratic Party and the labor union would be a model of the health care system that already exists in Canada, and would eliminate private health insurance within the publicly funded system.

And La Sexta is owned by economic and financial interests that also fund some of the extreme right-wing media, like La Razon. They allow some space for the left, but always in a very limited way. They expose those critical voices because they realize that the audience increases when critical voices are allowed. But the major owner supervises the production and do not leave much space for progressive forces.

HF – The economic program of Podemos also argues that it would encourage the presence of small and medium size companies to foster employment creation.

The Economist published an article called “Supersize me” (February 21, 2015) arguing that a lack of larger firms in Spain means fewer jobs and a less resilient economy. In particular, it mentions that “bigger firms tend to be more resilient in hard times than smaller ones. In Britain, for example, large companies – those with more than 250 workers – provide almost half of all private-sector jobs, compared with just a quarter in Spain. The Círculo de Empresarios calculates that if Spain had the same mix of firms as Britain, it would have lost half a million fewer jobs since the global financial crisis.”

From this perspective, what is attractive about medium and small size firms in an economy with such high unemployment rate, and what makes big corporations not a good option to overcome the challenges that Spain is facing today? How would this influence unemployment for young people?

VN – The major economic problems existing in Spain are not the size of the enterprises. Most of the largest Spanish enterprises used to be public enterprises that were privatized and run by friends of the governing parties. Many of them are less efficient than they were when they were public. Some of the major private banks that have run into major problems have been banks that used to be public. And even public banks were forced to act as private banks. And that is one of the major problems. Private banking in Spain is far too large. Spain is the country in the European Union with the smallest public banking sector. It is also one of the countries where it is most difficult to get credit. This, and the lack of demand due to the large reduction of wages (the lowest wages in the EU) and cuts in public expenditures (the lowest public expenditure in the EU) are the causes of the recession and limited recovery.

If Spain had the same percentage of adults working in the welfare State as Sweden, it would have about four million more people working then it has now.

The greatest need in Spain to restructure the economy, changing its dependency on sectors very prone to speculation, like construction. Also, contrary to what the 1% in Spain claims, the public sector is very underdeveloped. If Spain had the same percentage of adults working in the welfare State as Sweden, it would have about four million more people working then it has now.

HF – In your opinion, then, what would you say is Spain’s biggest challenge from an economic and political point of view, and what could the country do to overcome it?

VN – I would say that the biggest problem Spain is facing right now is the very limited democracy that it exists in the country. The transition from dictatorship to democracy in Spain took place in conditions very favorable to the conservative forces that controlled the State and the media. As a consequence, the Spanish state has a very limited democracy and underfunded welfare state. There is a need for a transition from the dramatically insufficient democracy to a real democracy, with active participation of the citizenship in the governance of the country.


Follow Vicenç Navarro on Twitter @VicencNavarro

For a longer discussion on Spain’s past, present and future, check Vicenç’s Navarro El subdesarrollo social de España: causas y consecuencias, available in most bookshops around the country.

Writing about financial repression in Venezuela with Carmen Reinhart

Barcelona GSE alum Miguel Ángel Santosalumni (ITFD ’11 and Economics ’12) is Senior Research Fellow at the Center for International Development at Harvard University. He recently won an award for a paper he has written with Harvard Professor Carmen Reinhart. In this post, he shares some background on the paper and some results.

[slideshare id=46379529&doc=2015-03-25-financialrepressionbalasvdef-150327165631-conversion-gate01]

Background of our paper

I approached Carmen Reinhart last year, while I was a Mason Fellow at the Kennedy School. She said she would be very interested in writing something about Venezuela. It turns out that Venezuela is such an anachronic, chaotic economy, that it allows us to study some economic phenomena in a way no other place does.

My idea was writing about foreign debt sustainability and default probabilities, etc. Carmen suggested otherwise. After all, lots of people have been working on foreign debt sustainability, and it would not be interesting adding to that pile of work.

Instead, she suggested looking into domestic debt default via financial repression, and associating that to leakages in the capital account that in turn weakened the foreign asset position. It goes against some market analysts’ assessment that Venezuela can go wild internally, wild being able to serve its external debt without any trouble. So we used two modified formulas for estimating financial repression for the previous 30 years, differentiating free market years from years of exchange controls.

Our results

We proved that financial repression it is not only significantly higher in periods of exchange controls, but also that the sheer size in Venezuela was astounding, equivalent to more developed countries with much larger internal debt-to-GDP ratios. That is to say, with a smaller stock of domestic debt, the Venezuelan regime needs a lot more repression to collect that. So they actually engineer it, creating mechanisms to produce it: right now inflation is running at a rate five times higher than yields on domestic bonds or bank deposits.

We moved on to show that capital flight, conceived in broader sense, including the over-invoice of imports, was higher in periods of exchange controls. Since financial repression is rampant in periods of controls, people will run risks just to jump out of domestic currency and get into dollars (capital flight). They do that by two means:  buying dollar-denominated bonds that the government has been selling in exchange for domestic currency, and over-invoicing imports. We measured the latter by a very innovative process, contrasting Central Bank reported imports with the sum of imports reported at Venezuelan customs. The difference is not only significantly higher across years of controls, but over those years it is 3-4 standard deviations away from the distribution of this error worldwide.

I presented the paper two weeks ago in San Juan, Puerto Rico, within the Business Association of Latin American Studies (BALAS), where it was granted the Sion Raveed Award, given to the best paper of the conference.

Comments welcome from the Barcelona GSE community

CID has published the paper on their working paper series. All comments from the BGSE Alumni and scholars community are welcome at this point. It is a modest paper, dealing with a small, crazy economy. And yet I think it makes a significant contribution.

harvardwp

“From Financial Repression to External Distress: The Case of Venezuela”
Carmen Reinhart and Miguel Angel Santos
Paper abstract and download via Center for International Development at Harvard University

Is Abenomics Firing at the Wrong Targets?

Barcelona GSE Macro alum Naomi Fink ’13 offers analysis of Japan’s recent structural reforms in The Diplomat this month.

Barcelona GSE Macro alum Naomi Fink ’13 offers analysis of Japan’s recent structural reforms in The Diplomat this month:

Japan analyst Naomi Fink, chief executive of Europacifica Consulting, argues that stagnant “total factor productivity” (TFP) and unstable labor/capital shares of income are at the heart of the nation’s economic problems – and short-term fiscal and monetary adjustments simply “won’t cut it.”

Read the full analysis on The Diplomat

Barcelona GSE Lecture – Using Internet Data to Understand Consumers and Markets

Lecture summary by masters students Hugo Kaminski ’15 and Yi-Ting Kuo ’15.

speaker

During the 31st Barcelona GSE Lecture, Professor Jonathan Levin, Holbrook Working Professor of Price Theory at Stanford University, discussed the advantages and challenges of using Internet commerce data for empirical research in economics.

Seller Experience – Let real online sellers run experiments for us

Economic research has long relied on public governmental institutions and organisations to collect empirical data, which are reliable but expensive. Data on the Internet could potentially be an alternative source as it can reduce the cost of varying parameters. However, it is also challenging to isolate specific effects as customization of products and services raises concerns about selection and endogeneity.

Prof. Levin and his collaborators found that the millions of listings on eBay could potentially serve as millions of small experiments with different seller choices. In collaboration with eBay, US data allowed them to run fixed effect regressions exploiting within-experiment variation in prices, fees, displays, and other parameters.

Auction and Demand – Never start with an intermediate price

The buyers market is very competitive. If an auction starts at a low price, the item will be highly sellable and the market will drive it to around 80% of its value. Starting at a high price will make the item harder to sell, but increases the probability of ending with a higher price. The resulting estimated demand curve was convex, which implies that for a seller to start an auction with either a low or high price is more profitable than an intermediate price.

As second example, Prof . Levin argued that the Internet market could be used to test behavioural hypotheses about consumers. By looking at the multiple auction listings with different (flat rate) shipping fees, their analysis suggests that people prefer free shipping so much that they are willing to pay a higher price for the goods with free shipping even if there is an equal good with lower total price including shipping costs.

By analysing Internet commerce data from 2003 to 2012, they observed the sellers’ learning curve and concluded that the demand for online auction has declined. One interpretation of this development could be that consumers grew accustomed to increasingly instant purchase options and tend to spend more time on other online activities thus losing the attention for online auction.

Sales tax – a problem across US states

In the United States there exists a sales tax of 8.875% on average among states for within state sales. It does not come as a surprise that the payment of this tax is viewed as a negative additional charge which online often appears just towards the end of the purchasing process. To analyse the impact of the ‘tax surprise’ Prof. Levin estimates the tax sensitivity by comparing purchase rates.

Prof. Levin’s research finds that both consumers and sellers are aware of this perceived “extra charge” and the fact that the tax does not apply on out-of-state sales. Their analysis finds two consumer trends: first there exists a preference for goods bought in geographic proximity; second, the rising item-level substitution which means the consumer chooses to buy the item from an out-of-state seller to avoid the tax. These two trends seem to form a paradox.

Professor Nezih Guner (right) with our speaker
Professor Nezih Guner (right) with our speaker

On the seller side, Prof. Levin illustrates the case of Amazon and the location of their distribution centres. Amazon takes advantage of California’s geographic shape by locating its distribution centres just outside state lines while keeping delivery times short. This results in being able to cater to consumers in California without paying the sales tax.

Since online shopping is a growing trend, taxation legislation changes have potentially great impact. Based on the data used, a 1% increase in current sales tax decreases online sales by 1.5-2.0% but increase online home-state sales by 3-4%; alternatively switching to national tax collection of internet purchases would decrease online sales by 12%.

Professor Levin’s presentation concluded that new large-scale data offers an opportunity to assess microeconomic theories of behaviour and market operation. The presentation was followed by a Questions & Answers session on data quality, auction information asymmetry and lessons learned from use of auctions. For Yi-Ting Kuo and Hugo Kaminski it has been an insightful experience to listen to Professor Levin’s talk presented with support from Banco Sabadell.

If you are interested to know more about the lecture, you may view it here:

Photo Diary: Exams Winter 2015

How masters and PhD students are surviving finals this month…

Staking out a cozy corner in the library

https://instagram.com/p/0VHeDnKyhe

 

It’s all about the snacks

https://instagram.com/p/0qCvxpg5yM/

 

Moments of Zen

 

A little help from our friends

https://instagram.com/p/0plmTdIiKd/

 

Have a photo you’d like to share? Email it to thevoice@barcelonagse.eu or mention @barcelonagse on Twitter or Instagram

More Bruegel blogs by Barcelona GSE alumni

Barcelona GSE Voice

Plucking away

Thomas Walsh ’14 is a Research Assistant at Bruegel and graduate of the Barcelona GSE Master in Macroeconomic Policy and Financial Markets. His recent post on the think tank’s blog, co-authored with Research Fellow Grégory Claeys, examines recovery numbers for countries coming out of deep recessions:

The recovery in certain economies (particularly in the Baltics and more recently in the UK or Spain) is often attributed to decisive economic policies (e.g. quick structural adjustment in Latvia, quantitative easing in the UK or labour market reforms more recently in Spain). While this view may be true, a theory suggested by Milton Friedman in 1964 (and revisited in 1993) proposes a complementary hypothesis: these strong recoveries are just natural after particularly deep recessions…

Read the full post on Bruegel.org: The “Plucking Model” of recessions and recoveries 

Greek tragedy

Mr. Walsh also recently co-authored a post about the vulnerabilities of the Greek banking system on the think tank’s blog with Bruegel director Guntram Wolff: The Greek banking system: a tragedy in the making?

Wage woes [updated 20.03.15]

In case you missed it, here’s a post on German wages by another Macro alum from the Class of 2014, Allison Mandra, also at Bruegel: Is low inflation translating into lower wage growth in Germany already?

Update: Ms. Mandra has posted new analysis on German wages: updates and stalemates


 

If you’re a student or alum who blogs, send us links to your work and we’ll share them here on the Barcelona GSE Voice!

Bundling, information and two-sided platform competition – Job Market Paper

authorThe following job market paper summary was contributed by Keke Sun (IDEA). Keke is a job market candidate at UAB. Her research interests include Industrial Organization, Venture Capital Markets and Innovation.


Two-sided markets are economic platforms that connect two interdependent groups of users together and enable certain interactions between these two groups of users. The main characteristic of two-sided markets is the indirect network externalities, meaning that one group user’s benefits of joining one platform depends on the number of users of the other group on the same platform. My job market paper studies the impact of pure bundling and the level of consumer information on two-sided platform competition.

The Story

This paper is motivated by the casual observations from the smartphone operating system industry. The operating system (OS) platform connects consumer and application developers, the major competitors are Android by Google and iOS by Apple. Apple also has its amazing in-house handset, iPhone, it bundles the handset with the OS platform.

ios

The Main Results

The leverage theory has established that, in standard one-sided market, if a firm can commit to pure bundling, when consumers have homogeneous valuation of the bundling product, pure bundling reduces equilibrium profits for all firms. Therefore, bundling is usually adopted to deter entry or lead to foreclosure (see Whinston (1990) and Carlton and Waldman (2002) ). However, in a two-sided market, if a platform could commit to aggressive pricing on one side and gain a larger market share. Hence, it becomes more valuable to the users on the other side. I show that, in the presence of asymmetric network externalities, when consumers have homogeneous valuation of the bundling handset, bundling may emerge as a profitable strategy when platforms engage in “divide-and-conquer” strategy: subsidizing the low externality side (consumers) for participation and making profits on the high-externality side (developers). That is, when the benefits of attracting one extra consumer are very strong, committing to aggressive pricing can be profitable without inducing the exit of the rival.

This paper also studies the impact of the level of consumer information on platform competition and the emergence of the bundling decision. Most literature on two-sided markets assumes that all agents have full information about prices and others’ preferences; therefore, can perfectly predict others’ participation decision (see Rochet and Tirole (2003), Caillaud and Jullien (2003), and Armstrong (2006) etc.). Following Hagiu and Halaburda (2014), I use the setting of a hybrid scenario in which some consumers are informed about developer subscription prices and hold responsive expectations about developer participation, while the remaining consumers are uninformed and hold passive expectations. This setting should be a good fit of a situation where information may be less than perfect for some users on different sides of the platform. For instance, some consumers don’t know how much Apple or Google charges the developers for listing applications. Information intensifies price competition with or without bundling. Bundling is more effective in stimulating consumer demand the larger proportion of informed consumers, but bundling is less likely to emerge as the fraction of informed consumers increases.

Strategy and Policy Implications

From a strategy perspective, this paper shows that both platforms have incentives to affect consumers’ knowledge regarding developer subscription prices. Without bundling, both platforms have incentives to withhold the information because consumer information intensifies price competition on both sides. However, when bundling does occur, the two platforms may have different attitudes towards consumer information. The bundling platform prefers a high level of consumer information because bundling is more effective to stimulate consumer demand. The competing platform wishes to withhold the information as it gets worse off as the level of consumer information increases. This paper also shows that when the network externalities are strong, it is more profitable for the platforms to be more aggressive.

From a public policy perspective, this paper provides recommendations concern bundling and information disclosure. Due to the existence of (positive) network externalities, consumer surplus increases with the number of developers on the same platform. Bundling does not only affect consumer subscription prices, but also affects the perceived quality of platforms as it affects developer participation. It has shown that pure bundling improves consumer welfare mainly because it offers a lower subscription price and more application variety to the majority of consumers. For the same reason, even when bundling implements second-degree price discrimination, bundling still improves consumer welfare. Also, information disclosure unambiguously improves consumer surplus by lowering subscription prices on both sides of the platform and improving developer participation. Thus, information disclosure should be encouraged or mandated for consumer’s sake.

Paper abstract and download available on Keke’s website